Growing Chinese demand for durian is expected to drive export growth from Southeast Asian producers, according to BMI Country Risk and Industry Research.

The Fitch research unit said in a note on Wednesday that it expects growing competition in the durian market, with significant growth in exports from Vietnam and Malaysia, which it expects will increasingly challenge Thailand's status as the largest global exporter.

"We expect Malaysia to become an increasingly important exporter of fresh durian to China thanks to the agreement (last year)," the research house said.

Last year, China's government reached an agreement with Malaysia to allow for the exports of fresh durian into the country. It is noted that Malaysia had already been exporting frozen pulp and whole frozen fruits during that time.

Meanwhile, Vietnamese durian production and exports have experienced a trend of significant growth over the past few years.

BMI noted a couple of main factors that drove the growth -- mainly the unfavorable weather conditions in Thailand weighing on exports and the agreement reached in 2022 by the Vietnamese Ministry of Agriculture and the General Administration of Customs of China allowing for exports of fresh durian to China.

Additionally, Vietnam also benefits from a land border with China and off-season durian production.

"We believe this is an important development which will increase export revenue for the country, with increased processing and reduction of seasonal harvesting pressure," said BMI.

Meanwhile, the Indonesian government has also been increasing efforts to gain market access for fresh durian exports to China.

Laos is another country where the research house expects continued investment in the durian supply chain.

The research house also forecasts continued strong demand for durian fruit from China, anticipating increased investment in the sector over the short to medium term.

According to the note, Chinese fresh durian imports have increased significantly over the past decade.

"We expect growth to continue in the medium to long term given the relatively low maturity of the market and the increasing popularity of the fruit," said BMI.

It further noted that durians are amongst the most expensive fruits and are often seen as novelty, luxury products generally eaten on special occasions, so BMI believes they are relatively resilient in the face of changes in consumer purchasing power.